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考虑灌溉及气候变化条件下葡萄花翅小卷蛾在中国的潜在地理分布

引用本文：秦誉嘉,吕文诚,赵守歧,刘慧,李志红.考虑灌溉及气候变化条件下葡萄花翅小卷蛾在中国的潜在地理分布.植物保护学报,2018,45(3):599-605

DOI：10.13802/j.cnki.zwbhxb.2018.2018075

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作者	单位	E-mail
秦誉嘉	中国农业大学植物保护学院昆虫学系, 北京 100193
吕文诚	烟台出入境检验检疫局, 烟台 264000
赵守歧	全国农业技术推广服务中心, 北京 100125
刘慧	全国农业技术推广服务中心, 北京 100125
李志红	中国农业大学植物保护学院昆虫学系, 北京 100193	lizh@cau.edu.cn

中文摘要:葡萄花翅小卷蛾Lobesia botrana （Denis&Schiffermüller，1775）是我国重要的检疫性害虫，目前尚未传入我国，为了解该害虫在中国的潜在地理分布，根据该物种在全球已知的最新分布情况，利用CLIMEX 4.0.2在考虑灌溉条件的情景下，预测其在不同气候条件下的潜在地理分布。结果显示，葡萄花翅小卷蛾在我国的潜在地理分布范围较广，我国的主要葡萄产区均为葡萄花翅小卷蛾的适生区，且随着气候变化，至2030年，葡萄花翅小卷蛾在我国黑龙江、青海、四川省的部分适生区有所增加，适生程度也有所提高。因此应加强对葡萄花翅小卷蛾的检疫力度，防止其传入我国，保护我国葡萄种植业的生产安全。

中文关键词:葡萄花翅小卷蛾 CLIMEX ArcGIS 潜在地理分布灌溉气候变化

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of European grapevine month Lobesia botrana in China considering the irrigation and climate conditions

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Qin Yujia	Department of Entomology, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Lü Wencheng	Yantai Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau, Yantai 264000, Shandong Province, China
Zhao Shouqi	National Agricultural Technology Extension Service Center, Beijing 100125, China
Liu Hui	National Agricultural Technology Extension Service Center, Beijing 100125, China
Li Zhihong	Department of Entomology, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China	lizh@cau.edu.cn

Abstract:European grapevine moth, Lobesia botrana (Denis & Schiffermüller, 1775) (Lepidoptera:Tortricidae) has been listed as the quarantine pest and currently absent in China. To clarify the potential geographical distribution of L. botrana in China, according to its latest known distribution occurrence, CLIMEX 4.0.2 was used to predict the potential geographical distribution of this pest under current and future climate conditions considering irrigation scenario. The results showed a wide potential geographical distribution of the pest throughout China, including all the current grape growing areas. With the climate change, in 2030, the potential range of the pest in China would increase in Heilongjiang, Qinghai and Sichuan, with an overall increase in the suitable level. Therefore, quarantine measures should be strengthened in order to prevent its introduction and protect the grape industry in China.

keywords:Lobesia botrana CLIMEX ArcGIS potential geographical distribution irrigation climate change

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