| 气候变化条件下樱桃绕实蝇在中国的潜在地理分布预测 |
| 点此下载全文 |
| 引用本文：秦誉嘉,蓝帅,卢国彩,刘玮琦,刘云慧,李志红.气候变化条件下樱桃绕实蝇在中国的潜在地理分布预测.植物保护学报,2019,46(1):63-70 |
| DOI：10.13802/j.cnki.zwbhxb.2019.2019908 |
| 摘要点击次数: |
| 全文下载次数: |
|
|
| 中文摘要:樱桃绕实蝇Rhagoletis cerasi（L.）被我国列为进境检疫性有害生物，目前在我国尚无分布报道。为明确该虫在我国的适生区及适生程度，利用CLIMEX地点比较模型预测在当前以及未来2030、2080年A1B与A2两种不同排放情景下樱桃绕实蝇在我国的潜在地理分布。结果显示，樱桃绕实蝇在我国的潜在地理分布包括长江以北的大部分地区，随着气候变化，到2030年与2080年，樱桃绕实蝇的低度适生区、中度适生区面积均增加，高度适生区面积减少，其中在2030年A1B排放情景下樱桃绕实蝇的总适生区面积增加了48.4万km2，在2030年的A2情景下与2080年的A1B与A2情景下总适生区面积分别减少了3.4、5.7、5.7万km2。因此，为保护我国樱桃种植业的安全生产，应加强对该虫的检疫力度，防止其传入我国。 |
| 中文关键词:樱桃绕实蝇 CLIMEX软件 ArcGIS软件 潜在地理分布 气候变化 |
| |
| Prediction on potential geographical distribution of European cherry fruit fly Rhagoletis cerasi in China under climate change |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Qin Yujia | College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Department of Entomology, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China | | | Lan Shuai | Department of Entomology, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China | | | Lu Guocai | Department of Entomology, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China | | | Liu Weiqi | Manzhouli Customs District P. R. China, Manzhouli 021400, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China | | | Liu Yunhui | College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China | liuyh@cau.edu.cn | | Li Zhihong | Department of Entomology, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China | lizh@cau.edu.cn |
|
|
| Abstract:The European cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis cerasi (L.) (Diptera: Tephritidae) has been listed as the quarantine pest and currently absent in China. In order to understand the suitable area and suitable levels of this fly in China, CLIMEX was used to predict the potential geographical distribution of R. cerasi under current and future climate conditions. The results showed that the potential geographical distribution of this pest was north of Yangtze River. With the climate change, the marginal and suitable range of this pest in China would increase and the optimal range would decrease in 2030 and 2080. The overall suitable range would increase by 48.4×104 km2 under 2030 A1B scenario and decrease by 3.4×104, 5.7×104, 5.7×104 km2 under 2030 A2 and 2080 A1B, A2 scenarios, respectively. Quarantine measures of R. cerasi should be strengthened in order to prevent its introduction and protect the cherry industry in China. |
| keywords:Rhagoletis cerasi CLIMEX software ArcGIS software potential geographical distribution climate change |
| 查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
|
|
|
|
您是本站第 8736015 版权所有：植物保护学报 京ICP备05006550号-2 主管单位：中国科协 主办单位：中国植物保护学会、中国农业大学 地址：北京市圆明园西路2号 中国农业大学植物保护学院 植物保护学报编辑部 电话：010-62732528 电子邮件：zbxb@cau.edu.cn 技术支持： 北京勤云科技发展有限公司 |
