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大气环流指数和地面气象要素对海南省橡胶树白粉病的影响

引用本文：白蕤,李宁,陈汇林,刘少军,陈小敏,邹海平.大气环流指数和地面气象要素对海南省橡胶树白粉病的影响.植物保护学报,2019,46(4):770-778

DOI：10.13802/j.cnki.zwbhxb.2019.2018106

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作者	单位	E-mail
白蕤	海南省气象科学研究所, 海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室, 海口 570203
李宁	中国热带农业科学院环境与植物保护研究所, 海口 571101	n.li@catas.cn
陈汇林	海南省气象科学研究所, 海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室, 海口 570203
刘少军	海南省气象科学研究所, 海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室, 海口 570203
陈小敏	海南省气象科学研究所, 海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室, 海口 570203
邹海平	海南省气象科学研究所, 海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室, 海口 570203

中文摘要:为探讨大气环流指数和地面气象要素对海南省橡胶树白粉病病情指数的影响，利用1962—2009年逐月大气环流指数和逐日地面气象要素资料，根据橡胶树白粉病病情指数等级，结合因子膨化、相关分析和多元回归等方法，筛选影响橡胶树白粉病病情指数的大气环流指数和地面气象要素，构建等级指标，建立预测模型，并对模型进行检验。结果显示：影响橡胶树白粉病病情指数的大气环流指数依次为北半球副高面积指数、北半球副高强度指数、西太平洋副高西伸脊点、北美区极涡面积指数、亚洲区极涡强度指数和印缅槽，显著影响时段为上年7月至当年4月；地面气象要素有平均最高气温、相对湿度、平均气温≥20℃的日数、小雨日数和平均风速，显著影响时段为上年10月至当年1月；基于大气环流指数、地面气象要素、大气环流与地面气象综合因子的橡胶树白粉病病情指数预测模型准确率分别为74.3%~78.8%、74.7%、94.6%~98.3%，表明基于大气环流和地面气象综合因子的模型准确率较高，可作为海南省橡胶树白粉病的中长期预测模型。

中文关键词:橡胶树白粉病病情指数大气环流指数气象要素预测模型

Influences of atmospheric circulation index and surface meteorological elements on the rubber tree powdery mildew in Hainan Province

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Bai Rui	Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province, Hainan Institute of Meteorological Science, Haikou 570203, Hainan Province, China
Li Ning	Environment and Plant Protection Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Haikou 571101, Hainan Province, China	n.li@catas.cn
Chen Huilin	Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province, Hainan Institute of Meteorological Science, Haikou 570203, Hainan Province, China
Liu Shaojun	Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province, Hainan Institute of Meteorological Science, Haikou 570203, Hainan Province, China
Chen Xiaomin	Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province, Hainan Institute of Meteorological Science, Haikou 570203, Hainan Province, China
Zou Haiping	Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province, Hainan Institute of Meteorological Science, Haikou 570203, Hainan Province, China

Abstract:In order to research the influences of atmospheric circulation index and surface meteorological elements on the disease index of the rubber tree powdery mildew in Hainan Province, the atmospheric circulation index and surface meteorological elements that affected the disease index of rubber tree powdery mildew were selected, and the indicator and prediction model of the rubber tree powdery mildew disease index in Hainan Province were established with the monthly atmospheric circulation characteristics data and the daily surface meteorological data from 1962 to 2009, based on the rank of the rubber tree powdery mildew disease index, combined with factor puffing, correlation analysis and multiple regression. The results showed that the rank of atmospheric circulation index which affected the disease index of the rubber tree powdery mildew included the northern hemisphere subtropical high area index, the northern hemisphere subtropical high intensity index, the West Pacific subtropical high extension ridge point, the North American polar vortex area index, the Asian polar vortex intensity index and the India-Burma trough. The effect of period was mainly from previous July to current April. The surface meteorological elements which affected the disease index of the rubber tree powdery mildew were the average maximum temperature, the relative humidity, the days of average temperature above 20℃, the days of light rain, and the average wind speed. The effect of period was mainly from previous October to current January. Based on the atmospheric circulation index, the surface meteorological elements, the comprehensive factors of atmospheric circulation and surface meteorology, the accuracy rate of prediction models predicting the disease index of rubber tree powdery mildew were 74.3%-78.8%, 74.7%, 94.6%-98.3%. Meanwhile, based on the comprehensive factors of atmospheric circulation and surface meteorology, the prediction model of rubber tree powdery mildew disease index had high accuracy, and it could be used for medium and long term predicting local rubber tree powdery mildew occurrence.

keywords:rubber tree powdery mildew disease index atmospheric circulation index meteorological elements prediction model

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