| 基于MaxEnt模型预测东亚小花蝽在全球的潜在适生区 |
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| 引用本文：刘佳琳,李敏,李霆霆,袁娟娟,杨焕焕,陈菊红,张丹丽.基于MaxEnt模型预测东亚小花蝽在全球的潜在适生区.植物保护学报,2025,52(6):1516-1526 |
| DOI：10.13802/j.cnki.zwbhxb.2025.2025084 |
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| 中文摘要:为优化东亚小花蝽Orius sauteri在农田及温室中的释放策略，收集并整理东亚小花蝽的地理分布数据，采用刀切法和环境变量响应曲线对影响东亚小花蝽分布的环境变量进行评估，借助MaxEnt和ArcGIS软件的空间分析功能预测其在当前气候条件下及未来气候条件下的潜在地理分布并划分其适生区。结果显示：最冷月份最低温度与最暖季度降水量是影响东亚小花蝽分布的关键环境变量。当前气候条件下，东亚小花蝽的适生区主要集中分布在亚洲东部与中南部、北美洲中部与西南部、南美洲中南部、非洲南部与北部、大洋洲东南部与西南部，以及欧洲中部少部分地区。仅SSP126气候情境下2050年东亚小花蝽适生区的总面积较当前气候条件下减少，其余气候及时间情景下东亚小花蝽适生区的总面积均较当前气候条件下呈现增加趋势，且SSP585气候情境下东亚小花蝽适生区向高纬度地区扩张明显。因此，东亚小花蝽具有随气候变暖向高纬度扩张的潜力，可充分利用其捕食性开展田间生物防治。 |
| 中文关键词:东亚小花蝽 MaxEnt模型 适生区 气候变化 生物防治 |
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| Prediction of potential suitable habitats of mulberry flower bug Orius sauteri worldwide based on the MaxEnt model |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Liu Jialin | College of Biological Sciences and Technology, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong 030619, Shanxi Province, China | | | Li Min | College of Biological Sciences and Technology, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong 030619, Shanxi Province, China | | | Li Tingting | College of Biological Sciences and Technology, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong 030619, Shanxi Province, China | | | Yuan Juanjuan | College of Life Sciences, Zaozhuang University, Zaozhuang 277160, Shandong Province, China | | | Yang Huanhuan | School of Bioengineering, Qilu University of Technology (Shandong Academy of Sciences), Jinan 250353, Shandong Province, China | | | Chen Juhong | College of Life Sciences, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, Anhui Province, China | 15181674153@163.com | | Zhang Danli | College of Biological Sciences and Technology, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong 030619, Shanxi Province, China | danlizhang2013@163.com |
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| Abstract:To optimize the release strategy of mulberry flower bug Orius sauteri in farmlands and greenhouses, its geographical distribution records were standardized. The jackknife test and response curves of environmental variables were applied to identify the key factors shaping the distribution of O. sauteri. Using the spatial analysis functions of MaxEnt and ArcGIS, we predicted its potential geographical distribution and suitable habitats under both current and future climate conditions. The results indicated that the minimum temperature of the coldest month and the precipitation of the warmest quarter were the key environmental variables influencing the distribution of O. sauteri. Under current climate scenarios, suitable habitats were mainly distributed in eastern and south-central Asia, central and southwestern North America, central and southern South America, southern and northern Africa, southeastern and southwestern Oceania, and parts of central Europe. Only under the SSP126 scenario in 2050 was the total suitable habitat projected to decrease compared with the current climate scenarios, whereas under other climate and time scenarios, the total suitable area showed an increasing trend. Under the SSP585 climate scenario, the suitable habitats expanded markedly toward higher latitudes. These findings suggest that O. sauteri has strong potential to shift poleward with climate warming and can be fully exploited for biological control in agricultural ecosystems. |
| keywords:Orius sauteri MaxEnt model suitable habitat climate change biological control |
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