欢迎访问《植物保护学报》网站！

首页 | 期刊简介 |
编委会
编委会
青年编委会
| 道德声明 | 投稿指南 | 联系我们 | 期刊订阅 | English

基于集成模型预测三带实蝇在我国的潜在地理分布区

引用本文：李维松,张源,张能,秦誉嘉,李志红.基于集成模型预测三带实蝇在我国的潜在地理分布区.植物保护学报,2025,52(6):1527-1535

DOI：10.13802/j.cnki.zwbhxb.2025.2025061

摘要点击次数:

全文下载次数:

作者	单位	E-mail
李维松	农林生物安全全国重点实验室, 农业农村部植物检疫有害生物监测防控重点实验室, 中国农业大学植物保护学院, 北京 100193
张源	农林生物安全全国重点实验室, 农业农村部植物检疫有害生物监测防控重点实验室, 中国农业大学植物保护学院, 北京 100193
张能	农林生物安全全国重点实验室, 农业农村部植物检疫有害生物监测防控重点实验室, 中国农业大学植物保护学院, 北京 100193 中国农业大学三亚研究院, 海南三亚 572025
秦誉嘉	农林生物安全全国重点实验室, 农业农村部植物检疫有害生物监测防控重点实验室, 中国农业大学植物保护学院, 北京 100193 中国农业大学三亚研究院, 海南三亚 572025
李志红	农林生物安全全国重点实验室, 农业农村部植物检疫有害生物监测防控重点实验室, 中国农业大学植物保护学院, 北京 100193 中国农业大学三亚研究院, 海南三亚 572025	lizh@cau.edu.cn

中文摘要:为评估分布于东南亚和大洋洲部分地区的寡食性水果害虫三带实蝇Bactrocera umbrosa入侵我国的风险，基于9 243条三带实蝇分布记录和当前气候条件下19个气候环境变量数据，通过主成分及相关性分析筛选出影响其分布的关键环境变量，并利用R语言的Biomod2集成模型对其在我国的潜在适生区进行预测。结果表明：共筛选到影响三带实蝇的5个关键环境变量，分别为月平均昼夜温差、气候季节性变化、最热季节平均气温、最湿月降水量和最干月降水量，贡献率分别为40.5%、33.2%、23.9%、2.2%和0.1%。在当前气候情景下，三带实蝇的适生区主要包括海南省、台湾省大部分地区及南海部分岛屿；在未来气候情景下，其适生区将进一步扩展至广东省南部及中部部分地区。适生区预测结果与其喜食寄主的种植区高度重叠，预示该害虫一旦入侵可能对当地水果产业构成严重威胁。据此建议在三带实蝇潜在适生区加强监测与调查，做到早发现、早处置；同时强化口岸检疫措施，严防其传入，以降低对我国水果产业的潜在为害。

中文关键词:三带实蝇 Biomod2集成模型适生性分析物种分布模型寄主

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of breadfruit fly Bactrocera umbrosa in China based on an ensemble modeling approach

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Li Weisong	College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University MARA Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests State Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Forestry Biosecurity, Beijing 100193, China
Zhang Yuan	College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University MARA Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests State Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Forestry Biosecurity, Beijing 100193, China
Zhang Neng	College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University MARA Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests State Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Forestry Biosecurity, Beijing 100193, China Sanya Research Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572025, Hainan Province, China
Qin Yujia	College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University MARA Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests State Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Forestry Biosecurity, Beijing 100193, China Sanya Research Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572025, Hainan Province, China
Li Zhihong	College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University MARA Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests State Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Forestry Biosecurity, Beijing 100193, China Sanya Research Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572025, Hainan Province, China	lizh@cau.edu.cn

Abstract:To assess the invasion risk of breadfruit fly Bactrocera umbrosa, an oligophagous fruit fly distributed in parts of Southeast Asia and Oceania, into China, this study compiled 9 243 records of the species and 19 climatic environmental variables under current climate conditions. Principal component analysis and correlation analysis were used to identify the five key environmental variables influencing its distribution. Five variables were retained: mean diurnal temperature range（40.5%）, temperature seasonality（33.2%）, mean temperature of the warmest quarter（23.9%）, precipitation of the wettest month（2.2%）, and precipitation of the driest month（0.1%）. The potential suitable areas for B. umbrosa in China were then predicted using the Biomod2 ensemble model framework in R. The results indicate that under current climate conditions, suitable habitats are mainly located in Hainan Province, most parts of Taiwan Province, and several islands in the South China Sea. Under future climate scenarios, suitable areas are projected to expand to southern and parts of central Guangdong Province. The predicted suitability patterns show substantial overlap with the cultivation zones of its preferred host plants, suggesting that an invasion would pose severe risks to local fruit industries. Accordingly, strengthened monitoring and surveillance in potential suitable areas are recommended to facilitate early detection and rapid response. Meanwhile, port quarantine measures should be strengthened to prevent its introduction and reduce potential threats to China’s fruit production.

keywords:Bactrocera umbrosa Biomod2 ensemble model habitat suitability analysis species distribution model host plant

查看全文查看/发表评论下载PDF阅读器