| 基于MaxEnt模型预测亚洲小车蝗在内蒙古的潜在适生区 |
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| 引用本文：吴雨娇,季良鹏,白晓拴.基于MaxEnt模型预测亚洲小车蝗在内蒙古的潜在适生区.植物保护学报,2025,52(6):1536-1547 |
| DOI：10.13802/j.cnki.zwbhxb.2025.2025081 |
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| 中文摘要:为明确亚洲小车蝗Oedaleus asiaticus在内蒙古自治区的潜在适生区，基于其在该地区的92条分布数据和19个气候变量数据，利用MaxEnt模型及ArcGIS软件评估影响其地理分布的主要气候变量，并预测在当前和未来（2041—2060年、2061—2080年）不同气候情景下的潜在适生区。结果显示：MaxEnt模型预测亚洲小车蝗的AUC值为0.920，预测效果极好；最湿月份降水量、年降水量、最暖季节降水量、最湿季节平均温度和最暖月份最高温度是影响亚洲小车蝗分布的关键气候变量，其适宜范围分别为74～113、261～387和171～284 mm以及14.0～19.8℃和21.9～28.6℃；其中降水是影响该蝗虫分布的关键因素。预测结果显示亚洲小车蝗在内蒙古自治区的当前适生区主要集中在中部、西南部和东北部；未来不同气候情景下，其高适生区面积均大幅减小，低适生区面积则增加；低适生区在东部及东北部大幅收缩，而在中北部呈现扩张趋势；质心在未来呈向西南方向迁移的趋势。表明虽然亚洲小车蝗在内蒙古自治区的适生区整体缩减，但低适生区扩张、质心向西南方向迁移的趋势将导致蝗灾风险动态转移，需强化该蝗虫在中部、西南部及东北部的监测，并预判其迁移路径以便提前制订防控措施。 |
| 中文关键词:亚洲小车蝗 最大熵模型 内蒙古 适生区 气候变量 降水 |
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| Predicting future potential suitable habitats of grasshopper Oedaleus asiaticus in Inner Mongolia based on MaxEnt model |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Wu Yujiao | Collage of Life Science and Technology, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Huhhot 010022, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China | | | Ji Liangpeng | Collage of Life Science and Technology, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Huhhot 010022, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China | | | Bai Xiaoshuan | Collage of Life Science and Technology, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Huhhot 010022, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China
Key Laboratory of Conservation and Sustainable Utilization in Mongolian Plateau, College and University of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Huhhot 010022, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China | baixs2007@aliyun.com |
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| Abstract:To identify the potential suitable habitats of grasshopper Oedaleus asiaticus in Inner Mongolia, 92 occurrence records and 19 bioclimatic variables were used to construct a MaxEnt model, combined with ArcGIS, to evaluate the major climatic factors influencing its geographic distribution and to project habitat suitability under current and future climate scenarios（2041—2060 and 2061—2080）. The MaxEnt model showed excellent predictive performance, with an AUC of 0.920. Precipitation of the wettest month, annual precipitation, precipitation of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and max temperature of the warmest month were identified as the dominant climatic factors, with optimal ranges of 74-113 mm, 261-387 mm, 171-284 mm, 14.0-19.8 ℃, and 21.9-28.6 ℃, respectively. Among these, precipitation was the key determinant. Under current climate, suitable habitats are mainly concentrated in central, southwestern, and northeastern Inner Mongolia. Under future scenarios, the extent of highly suitable habitats is projected to decrease markedly, while low-suitability habitats expand. Low-suitability areas contract substantially in the eastern and northeastern regions but expand toward the central-northern region. The centroid of the suitable habitat range shows a consistent southwestward shift. These findings indicate that although the overall suitable habitat for O. asiaticus will shrink in the future, the expansion of low-suitability habitats and the southwestward shift of the distribution centroid may lead to a spatial redistribution of locust outbreak risks. Enhanced monitoring in central, southwestern, and northeastern regions, along with early prediction of potential migration routes, will be crucial for effective pest management. |
| keywords:Oedaleus asiaticus MaxEnt model Inner Mongolia suitable habitat climatic variable precipitation |
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