| 温度与昆虫内禀增长率关系模型的比较 |
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| 引用本文：凡美玲,方水元,陈磊,张春霞,时培建.温度与昆虫内禀增长率关系模型的比较.植物保护学报,2017,44(4):544-550 |
| DOI：10.13802/j.cnki.zwbhxb.2017.2017021 |
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| 中文摘要:数学模型可用于反映温度对昆虫生长速率的动态变化，为选择一个对害虫发生预测具有重要意义的通用性模型，选择Beta、Briére、Ratkowsky和Lobry-Rosso-Flandrois （LRF）4个非线性模型分别对8组不同温度下昆虫和螨类内禀增长率数据集进行拟合，并比较模型拟合效果的优劣。结果表明：Ratkowsky模型对8组数据的拟合优度总体表现最好，其次为LRF模型和Beta模型，而Briére模型表现欠佳；Ratkowsky模型对低温阈值和高温阈值的估计较其它3个模型更为可靠。Ratkowsky模型不仅可以用于描述温度对细菌种群增长速率的影响，还可应用于描述温度对昆虫和螨类内禀增长率的影响。 |
| 中文关键词:Beta模型 Briére模型 曲线拟合 LRF模型 Ratkowsky模型 |
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| Comparison of four non-linear models between temperature and intrinsic rate of increase of insects and mites |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Fan Meiling | Bamboo Research Institute, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, Jiangsu Province, China | | | Fang Shuiyuan | Bamboo Research Institute, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, Jiangsu Province, China | | | Chen Lei | Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, N19W8, Sapporo 060-0819, Hokkaido, Japan | | | Zhang Chunxia | Bamboo Research Institute, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, Jiangsu Province, China | | | Shi Peijian | Bamboo Research Institute, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, Jiangsu Province, China | peijianshi@gmail.com |
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| Abstract:For typical ectotherms, mathematical models are often used to describe the effect of temperature on the growth rates of insects and mites. A general model that can describe different data sets among different models for accurately predicting the occurrence time of insect pests was chosen. In the present study, four non-linear models (Beta, Briére, Ratkowsky and Lobry-Rosso-Flandrois models) were selected to fit the observations of temperature-dependent intrinsic rates of increase for eight species of insects and mites to determine which one was the most general and best in data fitting. The results showed that Ratkowsky model had the best fitting flexibility for eight data sets and it also provided more reliable estimates on the lower and upper growth threshold temperatures relative to the others. The LRF and Beta models could describe the data sets well, but not as good as the Ratkowsky model. The Briére model did not work well in the goodness of fit of curve fitting and in the estimates on the lower and upper threshold temperatures. The Ratkowsky model could not only be widely used to describe the temperature-dependent growth rates of bacterium populations, but also applicable to the temperature-dependent intrinsic rates of increase of insects and mites. |
| keywords:Beta model Briére model curve fitting LRF model Ratkowsky model |
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