气候变化下多堆柄锈菌在中国的潜在地理分布预测 Click here to download the full text Citation：郝文泽,范在丰,石洁,马占鸿,周涛,张永军,时鸿宇,路一楠,秦誉嘉,李志红.气候变化下多堆柄锈菌在中国的潜在地理分布预测.Journal of Plant Protection,2025,52(2):284-293 Hits: Download times: Author Name Affiliation E-mail Hao Wenze  College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University Sanya Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572000, Hainan Province, China    Fan Zaifeng  College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University Sanya Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572000, Hainan Province, China    Shi Jie  Plant Protection Institute, Hebei Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Baoding 071000, Hebei Province, China    Ma Zhanhong  College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University Sanya Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572000, Hainan Province, China    Zhou Tao  College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University Sanya Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572000, Hainan Province, China    Zhang Yongjun  Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China    Shi Hongyu  College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University    Lu Yinan  College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University Sanya Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572000, Hainan Province, China    Qin Yujia  College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University Sanya Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572000, Hainan Province, China  qinyujia@cau.edu.cn  Li Zhihong  College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University Sanya Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572000, Hainan Province, China  lizh@cau.edu.cn  中文摘要:为明确玉米南方锈病病原菌多堆柄锈菌Puccinia polysora在我国的潜在地理分布，根据收集到的该菌全球分布数据，利用MaxEnt模型预测其在历史气候及未来气候条件下的潜在适生区，并分析影响其适生区分布的关键气候因素。结果表明：影响其分布的关键气候因素有最热季节平均气温、12月平均风速、最干季节降水量、气候季节性变化以及7月平均风速，相对贡献率分别为62.0%、14.9%、14.0%、5.0%和4.0%。在历史气候条件下，多堆柄锈菌在我国的潜在适生区整体呈梯级分布，适生性由东部沿海地区向内陆地区逐渐降低。在未来气候条件下，多堆柄锈菌适生区具有向北扩张的趋势，适生区面积有所增加，其中高适生区主要分布在华南地区、黄淮海地区，中适生区和低适生区主要涉及西北地区、西南地区。预测结果显示多堆柄锈菌在我国的适生区范围将进一步扩大，应加强该菌在其高适生区域的监测和防控。 中文关键词:多堆柄锈菌  MaxEnt模型  气候变化  潜在地理分布   Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of southern corn rust pathogen Puccinia polysora in China under climate change Author Name Affiliation E-mail Hao Wenze  College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University Sanya Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572000, Hainan Province, China    Fan Zaifeng  College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University Sanya Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572000, Hainan Province, China    Shi Jie  Plant Protection Institute, Hebei Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Baoding 071000, Hebei Province, China    Ma Zhanhong  College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University Sanya Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572000, Hainan Province, China    Zhou Tao  College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University Sanya Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572000, Hainan Province, China    Zhang Yongjun  Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China    Shi Hongyu  College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University    Lu Yinan  College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University Sanya Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572000, Hainan Province, China    Qin Yujia  College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University Sanya Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572000, Hainan Province, China  qinyujia@cau.edu.cn  Li Zhihong  College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University Sanya Institute, China Agricultural University, Sanya 572000, Hainan Province, China  lizh@cau.edu.cn  Abstract:To clarify the potential geographical distribution of Puccinia polysora, the causal agent of southern corn rust, in China, we have used global distribution data and the MaxEnt model to predict its potential suitable habitats under both past and future climate conditions. Key climate factors affecting its distribution have also been analyzed. The results show that the main climatic factors influencing its contributions of 62.0%, 14.9%, 14.0%, 5.0%, and 4.0%, respectively. Under historical climate conditions, the potential suitable habitats for P. polysora in China exhibit a tiered distribution, with suitability gradually decreasing from the eastern coastal regions towards the inland areas. Under future climate conditions, the suitable habitats are predicted to expand northward, with an overall increase in habitat area. High-suitability areas are mainly found in southern China and the Huang-Huai-Hai region, while moderate and low-suitability areas are concentrated in the northwest and southwest regions. The prediction indicates that the suitable range for P. polysora in China will continue to expand. distribution include the average temperature of the hottest season, average wind speed in December, precipitation during the driest season, climatic seasonality, and average wind speed in July, with relative keywords:Puccinia polysora  MaxEnt model  climate change  potential geographical distribution View Full Text  View/Add Comment  Download reader

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