摩洛哥戟纹蝗在新疆的潜在适生区分析 Click here to download the full text Citation：畅笑,任金龙,赵莉,林峻,秦誉嘉,冯士骞,李志红,Alua Rysbekova,Zhan Niyazbekov,涂雄兵.摩洛哥戟纹蝗在新疆的潜在适生区分析.Journal of Plant Protection,2026,53(2):573-584 Hits: Download times: Author Name Affiliation E-mail Chang Xiao  State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China    Ren Jinlong  Key Laboratory of Pest Monitoring and Safety Control on Crops and Forest, College of Agronomy, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China    Zhao Li  Key Laboratory of Pest Monitoring and Safety Control on Crops and Forest, College of Agronomy, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China    Lin Jun  Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Grassland Biological Disaster Prevention and Control Center, Urumqi 830000, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China    Qin Yujia  Department of Plant Biosecurity, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China    Feng Shiqian  State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China  fengshiqian@caas.cn  Li Zhihong  Department of Plant Biosecurity, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China    Alua Rysbekova  Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of Plant Protection and Quarantine, Almaty 050000, Kazakhstan    Zhan Niyazbekov  Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of Plant Protection and Quarantine, Almaty 050000, Kazakhstan    Tu Xiongbing  State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China  xbtu@ippcaas.cn  中文摘要:为明确2025年6月首次入侵中国新疆维吾尔自治区（简称新疆）伊犁哈萨克自治州霍城县的摩洛哥戟纹蝗Dociostaurus maroccanus的潜在适生区，基于其全球分布数据和环境数据，利用MaxEnt模型预测当前气候条件和未来3种气候情景（低强迫情景SSP126、中强迫情景SSP245和高强迫情景SSP585）下，摩洛哥戟纹蝗在新疆的潜在适生区。结果显示：年平均气温、等温性、最冷月最低温、最干季节平均气温、最冷季节平均气温、最暖季节降水量、土地利用类型和海拔是影响摩洛哥戟纹蝗分布的关键环境变量。在当前气候条件下，摩洛哥戟纹蝗的潜在适生区在新疆各地区均有分布，总面积达80.98×104 km2，约占新疆总面积的48.78%，其中高适生区主要位于伊犁哈萨克自治州。2061—2080年，摩洛哥戟纹蝗在新疆的潜在适生区整体呈向外扩张的趋势，且高适生区面积在SSP126、SSP245和SSP585情景下较当前气候条件下分别增加了85.71%、181.95%和224.44%。表明摩洛哥戟纹蝗在中国新疆定殖的风险极高，亟需构建科学高效的预警监测与风险管控体系。 中文关键词:摩洛哥戟纹蝗  新疆  MaxEnt模型  潜在适生区  气候变化   Prediction of potential suitable habitats of Moroccan locust Dociostaurus maroccanus in Xinjiang, China Author Name Affiliation E-mail Chang Xiao  State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China    Ren Jinlong  Key Laboratory of Pest Monitoring and Safety Control on Crops and Forest, College of Agronomy, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China    Zhao Li  Key Laboratory of Pest Monitoring and Safety Control on Crops and Forest, College of Agronomy, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China    Lin Jun  Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Grassland Biological Disaster Prevention and Control Center, Urumqi 830000, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China    Qin Yujia  Department of Plant Biosecurity, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China    Feng Shiqian  State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China  fengshiqian@caas.cn  Li Zhihong  Department of Plant Biosecurity, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China    Alua Rysbekova  Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of Plant Protection and Quarantine, Almaty 050000, Kazakhstan    Zhan Niyazbekov  Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of Plant Protection and Quarantine, Almaty 050000, Kazakhstan    Tu Xiongbing  State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China  xbtu@ippcaas.cn  Abstract:To clarify the potential suitable habitats of Moroccan locust Dociostaurus maroccanus, which was first recorded in June 2025 in Huocheng County, Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region（hereafter Xinjiang）, global occurrence data and environmental variables were used to predict its potential distribution in Xinjiang using the MaxEnt model under current climatic conditions and three future climate scenarios, namely SSP126（low forcing）, SSP245（moderate forcing）, and SSP585（high forcing）. The results showed that annual mean temperature, isothermality, minimum temperature of coldest month, mean temperature the driest quarter, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the warmest quarter, land cover classification system, and elevation were the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of D. maroccanus. Under current climatic conditions, potential suitable habitats of D. maroccanus were distributed throughout Xinjiang, with a total area of 80.98×104 km2, accounting for 48.78% of the total area of Xinjiang. High suitable areas were predominantly located in the Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture. By 2061—2080, the potential suitable habitats of D. maroccanus in Xinjiang are projected to expand outward overall, and the area of highly suitable habitats is expected to increase by 85.71%, 181.95%, and 224.44% under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. These studies indicate that the risk of establishment of D. maroccanus in Xinjiang, China, is extremely high, and a scientific and efficient early warning, monitoring, and risk management system is urgently needed. keywords:Dociostaurus maroccanus  Xinjiang  MaxEnt model  potential suitable habitat  climate change View Full Text  View/Add Comment  Download reader

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